Friday, April 15, 2011

The Coming War Against Israel

(Sorry for the slow blogging lately; its the day job again. Hopefully, grading will be over in another week.)

Neil Snyder paints a frightening but completely plausible picture of the next Arab assault on Israel in "The Next Gaza War Will Be a Coordinated Attack."
"There should be no doubt that the next Gaza war won't resemble the 2008-2009 war, and it could start at any time.

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Since the end of the last Gaza War, we've witnessed a flurry of activity to rearm Hamas and Hezb'allah. For example, in November 2009, Israel seized a ship carrying Iranian arms bound for Hezb'allah on Israel's northern border. According to Israel's deputy naval commander, Rani Ben Yehuda, the cargo included "dozens of containers with hundreds of tons of arms." Later reports revealed that the shipment contained more than 500 tons of weapons. (One ton equals approximately 2,205 pounds.) Just last week, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad admitted that he has allowed Iranian weapons to flow through Syria to Hezb'allah, and Hezb'allah chief Hassan Nasrallah has made it clear repeatedly that Hezb'allah will cooperate with Hamas if another Gaza war breaks out. Those weapons are needed for an attack on Israel.

In May 2010, the Israeli navy intercepted the "humanitarian aid" ship MV Mavi Marmara, which was bound for Gaza on Israel's eastern border. Nine terrorists posing as passengers died when they attacked Israeli commandos boarding the vessel. Ten commandos were wounded during the clash. Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas called the incident "a massacre"; a host of European Union officials demanded a full inquiry; Turkey erupted in protest; Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan vowed to do his part to protect Palestinians in Gaza; and the global media launched a vigorous campaign to smear Israel. Scant attention was given to the fact that the ship's cargo contained weapons of war.

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In February 2011, the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak allowed the Muslim Brotherhood to emerge from the shadows and engage openly in political activity for the first time in 57 years. Following Mubarak's resignation, Muhammad Ghannem, a leader of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, told the Iranian news network Al-Alam that the Egyptian people need to prepare for war with Israel. Supplying weapons to Hamas is a step in that direction.

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In March 2011, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reached an agreement with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to build an Iranian naval base in Latakia, Syria's largest port, from which Iran can operate freely in the Mediterranean Sea. Within days of the announcement, Israel intercepted a Gaza-bound ship leaving Latakia carrying Iranian weapons to Gaza. . . . Will they take part in the next Gaza war? With Assad's power diminishing and Islamist groups in Syria increasing their strength, the answer is probably "yes" -- if not directly as combatants, then as guerrilla fighters.

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Since the Arab Spring began in Tunisia in January 2011, Iran has stepped up its efforts to spread its version of radical Islam throughout North Africa and the Middle East. Jordan's King Abdullah, noticing a tidal shift occurring in the region and feeling the heat at home, decided it was time to make nice with Iran. Both the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda have a presence in Jordan and close ties with Iran, but until recently, they have been kept in check. That's changing, too, and an emboldened Islamist element in Jordan could topple Abdullah's regime and/or force him to rethink Jordan's peace treaty with Israel. Will Jordan join the next Gaza war? The answer isn't an unequivocal "no."

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We're witnessing the fruition of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's plan to destroy Israel. His first step was to announce his intention to the world. Some mocked him, but he meant business. Next, he worked to undermine political regimes in every country in the region and to strengthen Islamist elements beholden to him. All the while, he has worked feverishly to develop Iran's nuclear capability. Today, Israel is surrounded: Hamas in Gaza on the west, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt on the south and southwest, Hezb'allah in Lebanon on the north, a host of emerging Islamist terrorist organizations in Syria on the northeast, and on the east, a weakened monarch in Jordan attempting to restrain radical Islamists. With Ahmadinejad's unswerving support, the only step remaining is a coordinated attack on Israel."
Read it all here.

In September, the PA is going to try to have its state recognized by the UN.
That could create a pretext for war once Israel and the US reject it and the US vetos a resolution on it in the Security Council. Or, the strategy could be to mount a war now and have the UN resolution be part of the "peace agreement."

Or, maybe the PA knows that Obama will stand by and let the resolution clear the Security Council, in which case it could be enforced. All the US has to do is stand aside as the enemies of Israel destroy her. Does the PA know something the rest of us do not know?

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