Saturday, January 1, 2011

Predictions for 2010: How Did I Do?

Here are my predictions for 2010 made at the beginning of last year with an assessment of how accurate they were after each one in red.

Politics and the Economy

1. The Conservative Party in the UK will fumble a glorious opportunity to win a large majority in the Spring election and one of the smaller parties (either UKIP or the BNP) will make astonishing gains thus changing the electoral landscape radically, possibly even to the extent of holding the balance of power in a hung Parliament.

I was pretty much right on in this one except that even a jaundiced, cynical person like me did not foresee a Conservative alliance with the Liberal Democratic Party. If only the Conservatives had formed a pre-election alliance with the UKIP and thus obtained a majority for true conservatives. I'll give myself a 75% on this one.

2. The Conservative Party of Canada will win an historic majority in a Fall election.

Well, there was no Fall election due to the continuing internal turmoil in the Liberal Party, which is now going through leaders like Michael Moore goes through hamburgers. But the shocking win by Rob Ford in liberal Toronto shows that Tea Party populism and a rival of fiscal conservatism has not been quarantined south of the border. I can give myself no more than a 10% on this one.

3. The Republicans will either gain, or nearly gain, control of the House and gain at least 4-5 seats in the Senate during the 2010 mid-term elections, which will be a referendum on Obama's fiscal, health care, environmental and abortion policies.

The Republicans gained 62 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate and there can be no doubt that the election was a massive repudiation of Obama and all that he stands for. Only leftists who cling to the dream that it was the bad economy that caused the election results are still in denial. I'll give myself 99% on this one; I shouldn't have hedged by saying "or nearly gain".

4. By late 2010 there will be fierce debate over the introduction of a European-style Value Added Tax and drastic cuts to military spending in the United States in response to a spiraling deficit.

Once again, I was on the money. The VAT is not being discussed only because of the success of the Tea Party revolt. The big-government liberals, progressives and their Marxist allies are all now bleating about the deficit. What a joke! What they mean is that after the orgy of spending in 2009 and 2010, they now want to raise taxes. The US military is being cut slowly and gradually but Obama is frustrated that he cannot move faster in the teeth of determined opposition from the country as a whole. I'll give myself 90% here.

5. By the end of 2010 polls will show Sarah Palin leading Barack Obama and there will be talk of Hilary Clinton challenging Obama for the nomination in 2012.

OK, Sarah Palin is not quite leading Obama in the polls, although Romney is. There has been plenty of talk of Hilary in 2012 but the putsch has run into one decisive obstacle: the stubbornly high poll numbers of Barack Obama among black Americans. He retains an approval rating over 90% among blacks while sinking to under 45% among Americans as a whole. The problem is the outsized influence of the black vote in the Democratic primary system. Hillary could defeat him among white voters and would undoubtedly do better in the general election, but she cannot win in the primaries. Also, she seems to understand that 2012 is going to be a conservative year. I'll give myself 30% on this one.

6. The Emergent Church movement will gradually fade, though it will take longer than a year for it to be absorbed completely into liberal Protestantism.

I hear less and less about the Emergent Church as time goes along. It is now a blip in the rear view mirror. Brian McLaren and Jim Wallis are now just two more liberal Protestants whose only gimmick left is that they used to be Evangelicals. I'll give myself 100% here.

7. The Church of England will begin to splinter in 2010 as the Anglican Communion divides into the section that remains in communion with The Episcopal Church and the section that does not.

The splintering is well underway. Primates representing the majority of world Anglicans will boycott the upcoming Primates meeting in Ireland and the Western primates and their colonial servants will get together to discuss the glories of deviant sex and freedom from believing the Bible yet once again. The toothless Covenant is now a dead letter. I'll give myself a 100% on this one.

8. Pope Benedict XVI will succeed in bringing the Society of St. Pius X back into full communion with the rest of the Church. He will continue to be vilified by the liberal media and will continue to view that as a good sign that he is doing his job.

The process of bringing the Society of St. Pius X back into full communion is ongoing. Non-catholics can never get used to how long things take in the Roman Catholic Church. But there is no reason to think it is not on track. As long as Pope Benedict XVI is spared long enough, this process will be competed eventually. Pope Benedict is still being attacked by the "progressive" media; they know who the real threat is to their leftist agenda. I'll give myself 90% on this one.

9. John Paul II's Theology of the Body will begin to be recognized by Evangelicals as the theoretical foundation of an alternative to the sexual revolution and will be increasingly embraced by conservative Christians of all stripes.

This prediction was not specific enough to be able to evaluate precisely and I can't point to too many bits of evidence that Evangelicals are recognizing the ToB as a resource. But there continue to be straws in the wind here and there. I'll give myself a 50% on this one.

10. The debate over whether global warming is man-caused or part of the natural cycle of the planet's constantly changing environment will accelerate in 2010 and climate change alarmists will be increasingly placed on the defensive.

This debate did accelerate and the repudiation of the whole global warming scam continues to increase. Cap and Trade failed in the US Senate and has no chance in the next Congress. Obama will try to use the regulatory power of the EPA to regulate carbon but I believe that attempt will fail. The UN continues to push its agenda, naturally since it is a way of increasing the power of unelected UN bureaucrats. But the financial troubles in the EU are presenting an obstacle to implementation of Kyoto let alone anything more. The collapse of Spain's economy was aided by its Green policies and the UK is bumping up against the fiscal limits of Greenism. The future of the whole AGW scam is uncertain. Already the name has been changed to "Climate Change" in recognition that global warming is just not happening. I think we can expect the announcement of a new "crisis" that requires world government any day now. I'll give myself 100% on this one.

11. It will become widely recognized in 2010 that declining world population growth rates mean that a drop in population by mid-century could result in economic disaster.

It is maddening to report that the biggest economic threat facing Western democracies - the coming population decline - is still not being widely recognized. Most people have not yet connected the dots between Japan's population problems and its economic stagnation. I'm sorry to have to give myself only 30% on this one.

12. There will be another major terrorist attack in the United States in 2010.

There were too many to list. The Obama administration has been extremely lucky that a terrorist attack bigger than 9/11 did not happen. It was more good luck than good management and one wonders how long their luck can hold out. A major terrorist attack on American soil - particularly one with Iranian involvement - has the potential to bring Obama's whole sorry, foreign policy crashing down. I'll give myself 100% on this one too.

Total: 73% right.

Tomorrow: my predictions for 2011.

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